Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
